Forecasting A Day Long Aviaticus Cloud Event over the Central Wisconsin Flyway

4/28/2015 0700 CT: It appears by the indicators we should have good aviaticus cloud production by this afternoon. An air mass is moving in from the west-northwest and it appears a distinct boundary line (sheet) will precede this.

Update:  The indicators were correct.  NASA's Rapid Update Cycle  map based on the old Appleman Chart however did not show the likelihood of contrail formations.  I can say this is evidence that human analysis will be necessary for forecasting aviaticus events as the RUC model does not take into consideration present/past meteorological and flight tracking patterns.

The Boundary Sheet precedes this cloud mass, the 'dash' within the circle is our flight corridor, infrared map site:

Moisture Map at 7:15AM shows a trace of the Boundary Sheet pushing out the dry air (dark band). At 7:30AM when the first west bound aircraft passed over the green dash, they left segmented persistent aviaticus clouds (water vapor site):

First trails from west-bounds at 7:30AM (Looking East):

Here is the RUC map at that time indicating no upper air conditions for contrail formations in our flyway (White Dash):

In early afternoon RUC indicated favorable conditions: 

At that time both infrared and moisture maps indicated the boundary sheet was right over the flyway as indicated in these screen shots: Maps from NOAA Site

At that time I needed to drive north of our Flyway 7 miles and this is what the cloud cover looked like at the time the above maps were displayed:

Looking North away from the Flyway, note generally natural cirrus:

Looking south into the Flyway with both natural and aviaticus clouds:

As of 5:00PM CT persistent spreading aviaticus clouds are still being formed. Here is a remnant segment from a nice spreading trail:

Typically these trails from the northwest transports are Asian flights to Chicago.  Using the flightradar24 playback, my best guess from when the trail was laid and figuring drift of the formation, this was the aircraft that laid the above aviaticus trail:

At 6:00PM CT a parade of aircraft in quick succession passed through the Flyway leaving some nice trails within the thin aviaticus cirrostratus cloud layer that had developed or had mixed with the natural clouds:

During the night the cloud mass(es) passed through being coat-tailed by mid-altitude clouds and not even a whiff or pencil of short term aviaticus. 

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/forecasting-day-long-aviaticus-cloud.html

All Clear on the Central Flyway Today, here is why not a single contrail is to be seen:

Fabulous cool clear blue day with dry upper air and not a spit of an aviaticus trail or hint of a drifting cirrus to be seen.  Where are the aircraft? They can be heard flying over but only with a sharp eye or binoculars can they be spotted today.  They are all laying out sub-visual aerotrails of water vapor, cloud condensing nuclei such as soot.  The cloud mass exited over night and during that time the boundary line passed over the Central Wisconsin Flyway, even if conditions were right for contrail formation not that many flights were scheduled then.

Here are some photos that demonstrate why the aviaticus clouds (contrails) are not forming today:

A wide swath of dry air is covering most of the state of Wisconsin so exhaust vapor is not condensing on the cloud condensing nuclei spewed by the aircraft. Maps of Water Vapor &  Infrared from NOAA Site.

Below is a map of cloud cover with a line drawn to show the approximate corridor of jet traffic

We have a forecast for light rain Friday night 4.24.2015 so the best chance of an aviaticus event would be Friday when a moister boundary line passes through the Flyway from the Northwest prior to overcast.

Update:  Only light non-persistent aviaticus continued through Friday until the overcast covered the view. But as the overcast broke a bit Saturday morning remnants of persistent trails could be seen but no new trails could be seen in the broken cloud cover the rest of the day. 4.25.2015

4/26/2015  0600 CT:  This morning a huge mass of clear day air swung in from the north but it appears a blurred boundary line is following with a bit more moisture so by the time air traffic begins in another hour the transports should sport only short whiffs, if any at all.  The rapid update cycle map does show possible contrail forming conditions in the eastern segment of this flyway but I won't know until the Sunday morning traffic begins if those conditions remain or pushed south and aviaticus actually form.

Note small blue circle within the large white circle near Green Bay on the east side of our east/west Flyway on the Rapid Update Cycle Map:

4/27/2015 1800 CT: The same weather pattern continues. Short to no contrails, none persistent from morning until noon.  Interesting water vapor pattern.  Again the dry area dominated the flyway as moister air pushed in from the east and surface winds were from the north, the dry air (browns and blacks) became faintly stratified with bands of moister air (white) as seen on this map (water vapor site): 

At this time loose bands of natural cirrus clouds were moving through.  By noon a few segments of persistent aviaticus clouds could be seen as aircraft would traverse these areas.  By later afternoon the stratification was gone. Then that air mass had pushed over the flyway as seen in the map with more moister air (white area) replacing it. Infrared Map Site

Some trails became longer but none would persist and a few depending on altitude left short segments as they passed through the cooler moister air:

This photo is looking east from the east/west Flyway. Note a persistent segment of aviaticus clouds.  The natural cirrus may be at or near the same altitude as the aviaticus segment.  These cirrus clouds did not show up on the infrared map but I'm associating these natural and aviaticus cirrus with the bands or lighter areas of moister air.

4/28/2015 0700 CT: It appears by the indicators we should have good aviaticus cloud production by this afternoon. An air mass is moving in from the west-northwest and it appears a distinct boundary line (sheet) will precede this.

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/all-clear-on-central-flyway-today-here.html

Go Seven Miles North, then Turn Straight up for Another Seven Miles

A sky full of of aviaticus clouds is exciting, the same sky without aviaticus clouds/contrails is beautifully relaxing.  During this weekend's aviaticus events I drove north just 7 miles from the edge of central Wisconsin's long used east west flight corridor. Just a short distance, the equivalent between me and the typical overhead jet and everything changes. The area goes from ag land to forest, the sky goes from cirrus and aviaticus clouds to cirrus and blue. From an open area where you can see the weather to the south and north, to just being able to see the weather overhead because my destination is surround by trees. It is nice for a change to look up and not see an aircraft streaking out a plum, where I automatically go into analysis mode estimating altitude, width of the trail, watching to see if the trail dissipates or becomes permanent or if it will spread, if so. which direction it drifts. Curious, I might check the flight software to see its altitude, type of aircraft, speed and destination, perhaps seeing another aircraft tracking in the same direction with only a needle-like short-lived trail and then I feel the need to quickly verify that the altitudes are different as the vertical depth of the ice saturated air in which a permanent aviaticus has formed is quite thin, perhaps a 1000'. Yep, it was nice just a few miles north of the flyway, looking up and seeing none of this and not being able to see what was going on in the south along the flyway because the trees block that view. I just go back to my tasks, not distracted by what has now become an unfamiliar spring Sky, the sky of my distant childhood. The only thought that may slip into my mind while I am north, are the clouds I am seeing natural, aviaticus or a hybrid of the two?  But without the obvious linear shape, it is not possible to know so that thought dissipates faster than a short trail in dry/warm air and I go about enjoying the view.

The original problem posed by contrails were for military reasons.  Now the funded sciences are trying to find a solution because of the climate changing possibilities of aviaticus clouds, warming, cooling, hydrology cycle disruption or even if there is a problem, is it significant?  Aesthetics are hardly mentioned in the funded studies that I've read. Nevertheless if they successfully find a solution to this very complex residual effect of air transport, the aesthetics will follow, the naturally beautiful sky literally will follow.  

Researchers are pursuing the solutions for contrail elimination, but each contrail solution like pharmaceuticals have challenging side effects.  Will more efficient engines to reduce the soot nuclei produce greater heat or possibly more water vapor or CO2?  Flying around ice saturated air could cost more fuel, lengthen flight time, place more stress on crews, passengers and air controllers. Changing traditional flight altitude to the tropopause or lower stratosphere where the air is dryer and contrails are unlikely to form. But then the concern is for ozone depletion from the chemical emissions. Ideally short of reducing air travel, since the ice saturation sheets are thin, if they can be detected these sheets with precision, altitude adjustments of just a few thousand feet during each flight to avoid those areas could reduce aviaticus clouds to a great extent. Having at the same time more efficient engines and fuels that produce less soot nuclei would still be important. First clouds can still be formed by the sub-visual aerotrails of soot particles well after the aircraft has passed as the particles contact more humid air. Still little is known of the effects of millions of aerotrails even if no contrails are formed. Perhaps there are no negative effects,  perhaps the accumulation of these particles are having an effect on climate or health we do not yet understand or that the public is aware of.

For more on this subject please read Ulrich Schumann's 2005 published paper:

FORMATION, PROPERTIES AND CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF CONTRAILS

Contrail Reduction Strategies Using Different Weather Resources By Neil Y. Chen et al

Design of a Flight Planning System to Reduce Persistent Contrail Formation to Reduce Greenhouse Effects   By Tanveer, Gauntlett, Diaz, Yeh

Extended Aviaticus Cloud Forecast:  By Wednesday 4.22.2015 the cloud cover should begin to break and a dryer air mass should move in. Earlier Thursday the clouds should be clearing out and during this period contrails should form but decrease to short-lived whiffs by late afternoon Thursday or Friday morning.

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/go-seven-miles-north-then-turn-straight.html

Short Aviaticus Event This Morning Along the Central Wisconsin Flyway

A wide band of high clouds on the edge of a boundary sheet has moved through the center of Wisconsin this morning, preceding  heavier clouds from the southwest, a pattern repeated in the last 5-6 days.  The difference this time is that rain is predicted so as this first wave of pre-precipitation  mass moves in, what  aviaticus pattern will follow?  It is mid-morning so air traffic has slowed and so I'm not sure if it is a hiatus in the traffic or if a band of dryer/warmer air is passing over but the water vapor map indicates it is band of dry air.  However cirrus are still moving in from the Southwest but I can not tell if they are natural or aviaticus.  

My prediction is that the persistent trails will cease during this present period of dryer upper air and just before the thicker clouds move in,  they will again form.  Any sky watcher north in northern Wisconsin would be thinking that same thing as our aviaticus clouds drift north.  Here are directional shots of the event.

Early this morning, looking east where the aircraft originate:

Two views looking south into the flyway (note white Horizon):

Looking North out of the Flyway to where the Aviaticus are drifting (note clear horizon):

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/massive-day-long-contrail-event-of.html

How Contrail Form into Milky Opaque Sheets

Yesterday was a full day of persistent to spreading cirrus aviaticus clouds (contrails).  As the first line of east to west air traffic traversed through our Central Wisconsin Flyway, horizon to horizon trails began to form from the water vapor attaching to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) from the jet exhaust at an altitude between 32000-36000'. From flightradar24

Moist air continued to push in from the southwest following the pattern of the last 4 days, forming a boundary line (sheet) roughly along and beneath the regular air traffic pattern. From Infrared Map Site

Infrared

Moisture  From NOAA Water Vapor Site

At that time 7:30-8:00 AM CT the high cirrus were moving through the Flyway as the air mass slowly spread to the north.  

From the northern edge of the east west weather and air traffic pattern looking south:

Looking North of the Flyway:

By 9:30 AM the boundary line with both natural and aviaticus cirrus clouds drifted north and this continued throughout the day.

Looking East as Thin Clouds Drift Past the Flyway Going North.  A typical view seen most of the entire day.

As the cloud cover progressively thickened (optical density OD) from a combination of natural clouds and the boundary sheet area of the flyway which by then had been striped with many additional persistent clouds,  a sort of nuclei and moisture saturation occurred and typical for this type of event a sun dog formed from the natural and cirrostratus aviaticus ice clouds.

Looking South into the Flyway 11:00 AM

Note: Even NASA's Rapid Update Cycle RUC Map below, based on the Appleman Chart got this one right.

The 3 yellow circles across the center of the Wisconsin Flyway were a predictor of contrail formations:

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/massive-day-long-contrail-event-of.html

It is Time for Professional Meteorologists to Step Up & Begin Forecasting the Big White Elephant in the Sky

Over the last last 4 months I have attempted to forecast contrail events for Central Wisconsin. Untrained in meteorology and particularly in upper atmospheric science, I have had to rely on ground based observations of weather and air traffic patterns and national weather maps and local weather forecasts.  Here are a few things I have learned or observed:

1. All combustion aircraft leave a persistent trail, invisible from the ground, called an aerosol trail, aerotrail for short.
2. The aerotrails are composed of cloud condensation nuclei. (CCN) These are basically small particles of soot that may form into water droplets or ice crystals depending on the temperature of the air.
3. All combustion aircraft add water vapor to the atmosphere.
4. The lengthening or shortening of contrails (cirrus aviaticus) indicates areas of temperature or moisture changes in the upper atmosphere or both.
5. When contrails of short duration begin to lengthen, going to needle size, to pencil, to fishing pole, expect persistent contrails to begin forming. 
6. As drier or warmer upper air masses move into flyway areas expect to see the contrails become shorter in length and duration or not appear altogether.
7. When natural cirrus clouds move through a flyway, contrails will more likely be visible.
8. Multiple persistent trails may spread to form milky sheet clouds. I call these clouds cirrostratus aviaticus.
9. Persistent contrails most likely form on either side of moisture boundary lines, sometimes called dry lines. These boundary lines can be wide and I call them boundary sheets.
10. As the boundary sheets drift within the flyway additional aircraft pass though them laying more invisible aerotrails and moisture making the cirrostratus aviaticus denser in appearance.
11. If the drift is in the direction of the predominant flyway traffic the ice crystal saturation can lead to the viewing of or at least enhance sun dog halos.
12. If  the persistent cirrus aviaticus (contrails) or cirrostratus aviaticus (milky sheets) drift outside the flyway, they tend to thin or dissipate.  With the lack of traffic no more man-made nuclei is added.
13. So far, from identifying the aircraft using flight tracking software,  I have not been able to identity any deliberate laying of chemtrails (chemical trails)
14. All the phenomenon I have observed so far has been from regular commercial airline traffic flying between 30,000-40,000'.

Today we have heavy persistent cirrus aviaticus clouds forming and morphing into cirrostratus aviaticus within the Central Wisconsin Flyway.

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/it-is-time-for-professional.html

Contrail (Aviaticus Clouds) Forecast for Central Wisconsin: Great Day for Photography if You Want to Avoid Man-made Clouds

A wide swath of dry upper air slightly streak with areas of moisture but without any distinct boundary lines will be over the Wisconsin Flyway today.  We should have some hit and miss aviaticus trails tomorrow and Thursday as conditions become a bit more mixed and complex. I'll try to post an update if boundary sheets with moist air become evident.

Update: Wrong! Before noon the dry upper air pushed north and cirrus and sections of cirrostratus moved in from the a southwest front.  Only short trails were seen earlier but as the dry air was replaced small segments of persistent aviaticus clouds (contrails) were scattered about though for the most part trails remained short with quick dissipation. This continued to increase into the afternoon dividing the state into two hemispheres, the dividing line going right over my location. So looking north I would see clear skies, south thicken cirrus of both natural and aviaticus. 

A Boundary line is shown below but again the boundary sheet of moister air reaches further north of the line as this mass inches north so contrails (aviaticus clouds) and longer non-persistent trails formed.  Oddly, the meteorologist were all correct, we had sun all day as the clouds were too thin to block it. How much of the cloudiness was cirrostratus aviaticus is the question.  Natural cirrus were present in the early morning but the continual additions of nuclei to the moving boundary sheets may be the greatest factor. This is why meteorologist need to make contrail forecasts.  Sunny skies do not mean clear blue skies especially along the flight corridors.                                  

                                               Infrared Map: From NOAA Site

Moisture Map, Darker Area indicates Drier Air: From NOAA Site

From the Boundary Line Looking South into the Flyway

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/contrail-aviaticus-clouds-forecast-for.html

A Time Frame Today For Contrail Formations in Central Wisconsin

For the third day in a row the weather pattern has been from the southeast and rain clouds will push out this morning with mats of drier clouds tailing. Tailing these will be a break up of clouds and there should be some aviaticus formations just before a huge upper mass of dry air covers most of central Wisconsin with only a small change of some drift segments from the southeast.  Otherwise it should be binoculars only for tracking the high flyers.

Update:  The tailing clouds were less than what appeared on the forecast map and the dry line seemed thin.  We had several hours of short whiff contrails in the intermediary air around that dry boundary line but after 10 AM these aviaticus trails were no longer appearing. Map from NOAA Site

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/a-time-frame-today-for-contrail.html

Why do Contrails (cirrus aviaticus) form into milky opaque sheets (cirrostratus aviaticus)?

Never in history have we had so many airline flights.  37,000,000 scheduled flights last year and who knows how many unscheduled?  Aircraft manufactures are swamped with orders.  Contrails (aviaticus clouds) visible from the ground are common but only represent a fraction of the invisible aerosol trails (aerotrail) left by all combustion aircraft composed of a mix of small nuclei of combustion residue called Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) .  If we could somehow see each aerotrail  as we can contrails our entire view of the sky would change especially along heavily used flyways.  There we would see hundreds of persistent spreading trails and multiple layers of milky sheets everyday.

But we only see high altitude persistent contrails and milky sheets at certain times when meteorological conditions are right.

Imagine a full blue out day along a flyway, you have the aircraft but not a whiff or needle of a contrail is to be seen and it is difficult to spot the passing aircraft that you can hear.  At this time they are all laying a wide persistent aerotrail and if they were visible the sky would already be heavily streaked with other trails that had drifted into your area from flights outside your viewing area.  But back to what you are actually seeing. Later,  as the day progressed the high altitude  airliners begin  sporting short non-persistent trails and several hours later longer trails. By after noon you see segments of persistent contrails in the far horizon starting to drift into you area.  Several hours later they are closer and still intact and now some of the airliners in your flyway begin to spew thick persistent trails and even the approaching aviaticus clouds now look like natural cirrus in a lighter blue, whitish sky.  Shortly these milky clouds are covering your flyway and still the passing jets are laying thick persistent trails. From the ground view at a fixed point it appears like these aircraft are deliberately spraying some type of chemical to cause this change.  But you track the aircraft and they are regularly scheduled flights from all over the country (world in some cases) so what is going on? 

What you have observed is a high altitude boundary line passing over your area.  On one side of the line the upper atmosphere was relatively warm and dry and or the other side of the boundary line it is colder and wetter.  But it is not really a line, that is a thin line, but the line is more like a wide sheet.  Imagine  the a line in the sky that is 10-20 miles wide so it may be better to call this a boundary sheet.  This boundary sheet was first visible to you when you began to see the contrail segments drifting toward you from a far horizon.  As the leading edge of this sheet began to approach your area the atmospheric conditions began to slowly change from dry/warm to moist/cooler and the contrails in your flyway began appear and then become longer.  The closer this boundary sheet came the longer your trails form. At the same time that boundary sheet is being intersected with more and more aerotrails that are forming more visible spreading persistent contrails and that section of sky is taking on a lighter shade of blue and becoming increasingly milky white.  The moist air coming into contact with the dry air causes natural cirrus clouds to form into cirrostratus clouds and the same process is taking place with the cirrus aviaticus clouds.  By the time the boundary sheet reaches your overhead flyway the sky is already milky white.  Additional aircraft passed through this sheet during its slow progress to your area while it was reforming into a stratus from contact with the warmer air.   Once the sheet passes over and out of your area it may have been followed by natural thicker clouds as the original boundary sheet was the atmosphere that precede other natural cloud formations.  Or it may be followed by blue skies and a shrinking or disappearance of the contrails.  I have viewed many of the former but here is an example of the latter:

At the time of the event this is the a screen shot of the infrared loop: 

A screen shot of sky cover loop shows no cloud cover: (From 

From the moisture loop a swath of dry air is swiping across Wisconsin from the Southwest: Map from NOAA site

As the boundary line (sheet) moves in to my Central Wisconsin flyway, contrails begin to lengthen and segments of persistent trails can be seen in the the southwest.

As the boundary sheet approaches more jet traffic add additional exhaust nuclei to the sheet and the milky skies form. Photo of approaching moist air:

When the sheet passed between me and the sun I thought it was going to be thick enough to form a sun dog but it did not and after the sheet passed, an hour or two the boundary sheet and original persistent contrails could still be seen probably past Green Bay and over Lake Michigan.  At this time the contrails in my viewing flyway had resumed to whiffs and needles in a full blown blue out of sky.

Afternoon Forecast:  Since dawn we have had clear skies with not a whiff of one trail appearing along the Flyway.  By 2PM CT we could have some contrail forming,  We do have a nice swath of upper atmosphere dry air right along the Flyway but it appears that will push Northeast and the blue skies could be replaced by an wide swath of upper clouds trailing alongside a approaching heavier cloud mass.  I would expect at minimum lengthening contrails as this brushes overhead and some accumulating persistent vestiges that may form higher milky cirrostratus aviaticus.

Update: By 2:00 PM CT those edge clouds came rolling through as cirrocumulus, lower altitude than the cirrus and only one short trail was observed.  By 4 PM a few persistent segments drifted into the flyway and by 6 PM several long lasting trails (5-10 minutes) were laid overhead afterwards it reverted back to needles and whiffs through sunset.

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/why-do-contrails-cirrus-aviaticus-form.html

Contrail Forecast for Central Wisconsin & Spotting Near Invisible High Altitude Aircraft

4/11/2015 7AM As a line and formation of commercial jets cross Lake Michigan tracking toward our general flyway in Central Wisconsin, I rush through my basic procedure of analysis to formulate today's aviaticus cloud forecast before these craft come into view.  If any contrails are viewable today, they only should be of short length and duration but overall we should see no aviaticus clouds this morning or this afternoon.

Update: 7:00-7:30AM All traffic along the west-East flyway displayed  short duration needle -like aviaticus clouds. All traffic was between 35-36000' with the exception of one flight at 26000 and climbing that displayed no trail.

                                                   How to Spot Aircraft that are not Sporting Contrails

First learn the flight patterns in your area.  To do this I ended up using Flightradar24 site.  This was recommended by Mick West and others from Metabunk.  I use it on laptop, desktop and iPad. 

With normal vision it is quite easy to spot aircraft above 30000' if they are trailing even a short whiff of white.  But at times aircraft will streak out a trail between 35-36000' and none at 34,000'. Or even depending on location some aircraft within the same elevation range will trail but others will not.

Years ago I learned some methods of improving vision as I used to wear glasses and wanted to explore the possibility of improving my vision after my optometrist emphatically told me 'there is nothing you can do.' (Other than wear glasses!) He was wrong.  One exercise I began was viewing 3 dimensional sterograms.  Most people are familiar with these. You lazily stare at a picture and suddenly objects appear in 3D that were not visible in the 2D format.

When we scan a completely blue sky we are only focusing right in front  of our face and not 7 miles away.  Changing focus to that range is difficult because there is no reference point so we do not perceive we are just scanning an area in front of our noses.  Hold up one finger at arms length in front of your face and focus on it and you see a single finger, now with the finger still in view look beyond it to the open sky, you will see two fingers though you are not focusing on them, you are looking beyond them, your individual eyes have actually separated (diverged)and you are focusing out and have a better change of spotting a trailess aircraft.

Binoculars work as well of course but you'll want to pre-focus on a distant object otherwise you may doing an out of focus scan just as with the naked eye.  This morning the moon was visible so I used that to set my focus.  Sill you should know the approximate location of aircraft and this is where I use the flight tracker. With an inexpensive app, high altitude aircraft can be approximately located by scanning the sky with the iPad camera.  I prefer the iPad because of the large screen.  Most aircraft are actually ahead of where they are plotted on the iPad screen simply because of information transmission delays.  So if you spot an aircraft on a flight tracker screen that is 20 miles away, start scanning the sky at it may already be passing by or down range.  I love practicing without binoculars when there is time.  Great exercise for the eyes.

The first arrival this morning while I was using the focus method, easy to spot though as it was trailing an aviaticus whiff:

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/contrail-forecast-for-central-wisconsin.html

Light Contrail Formation Expected Today for Central Wisconsin Flyway, Nesting Box Prep Ends Today

We are right on the cusp of some partial cloud clearing this afternoon with some breakup already apparent.  Patches of dry upper air also is swirling through the state. Conditions do not look good for aviaticus (aircraft) cloud formation today but Saturday we are expecting full blown spring to bully into the area.

Update: Clouds cover passed to mostly clear skies in the late afternoon.  Two aviaticus cloud segments could be seen in the far northwest and after an hour they had drifted overhead and appeared like natural cirrus. Not a whiff or a needle of contrail besides these formed all day.

Nature is poised and ready to explode.  Managed to clean out the bird nesting boxes yesterday and add inspection lids in preparation for nest monitoring.  It appears time is up for those activities as the ongoing jostling for territories by the early cold tolerant migrants is about to shift to breeding and nest building  . Ice went off the lakes this week.

A Tree Swallow Nest from  Last Year

Nest Boxes Made from and mounted on  Old Cedar Post.  This year I have installed inspection covers to monitor the clutches.

Adding Cloud Condensation Nuclei Analysis to my Future Aviaticus Cloud Forecasting...Someday???

Cloud Condensation Nuclei CCN

Professor Henrik Svensmark believes cosmic rays ionize the atmospheric gases and this forms an unknown percentage of the cloud condensation nuclei CCN that attract water vapor and form ice crystals and rain drops which form clouds. Simply, cosmic rays form some clouds. Under the right conditions can other unknown stimuli cause the formation of persistent and spreading aviaticus (Aviation) clouds?

In a slide show lecture he used this satellite image of exhaust clouds, not the common and familiar aircraft contrail images but this one is of ships off the coast of Europe.

Cloud Condensation Nuclei CCN Count Analysis

Presently CCN are captured by aircraft but of course the challenging move to satellite analysis is progressing.  Perhaps it it already being tested and used.  Right now companies such as Droplet Measurement Technologies DMT sell services and CCN gathering and analysis equipment to a variety of research laboratories but if and when CCN analysis by satellite is perfected, atmospheric, pollution and climate change researcher, weather modification applicators, aircraft manufactures will subscribe to satellite analysis services. 

A CCN Counter Sold by Droplet Measurement Technologies:

No aviaticus (aviation) cloud forecast for the next few days due to weather forecast of cloud cover. Next possible event should be Saturday 4/11/2015

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/announcement-adding-cloud-condensation.html

Aircraft Clouds (cirrus aviaticus) Forecast for Central Wisconsin Flyway & German High Altitude Video

We have low cloud cover this morning in central Wisconsin along our flyway but indicators show that conditions do not appear favorable for visible aircraft trails (aviaticus clouds) in the upper atmosphere anyway.

Later this morning we should have partial clearing with possible aviaticus forming in the the thinner upper tailing clouds.  Also the local weather forecast calls for a chance of snow or rain.  So there may be some appearances of persistent aviaticus clouds preceding these denser clouds but overall we should not be seeing huge contrail events today.

In the video below from Germany, the guys used a GoPro and from an high altitude balloon filmed above the lower cloud deck. The film is for the most part sped up but once they get above the stratus formation they slow the speed down. Look carefully at 3:27 to 3:52 and it appears they captured a typical persistent cirrus aviaticus just to the left and below the sun!

Update: As clouds slightly broke in late AM, no trails could be seen during a period of busy travel. Progressively moderate breaking of cloud cover in mid-afternoon showed a thin cirrostratus had developed and one persistent and spreading aviaticus cloud. As lower clouds thinned, a long thin trails were blazed with durations of 2-3 minutes before dissipating. 

One interesting traffic anomaly. A line of west bound jets at 32,000-37,000 trailed by me and then tracked north a bit, then back south and back on their westerly track to Minneapolis as if avoiding something.  I couldn't see any weather on satellite that would explain why they were re-routed, just more cloudiness closing off the remaining blue. Turbulence? 

 From Flightradar24

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/aircraft-clouds-cirrus-aviaticus.html