Sunday, April 19, 2015

Go Seven Miles North, then Turn Straight up for Another Seven Miles

A sky full of of aviaticus clouds is exciting, the same sky without aviaticus clouds/contrails is beautifully relaxing.  During this weekend's aviaticus events I drove north just 7 miles from the edge of central Wisconsin's long used east west flight corridor. Just a short distance, the equivalent between me and the typical overhead jet and everything changes. The area goes from ag land to forest, the sky goes from cirrus and aviaticus clouds to cirrus and blue. From an open area where you can see the weather to the south and north, to just being able to see the weather overhead because my destination is surround by trees. It is nice for a change to look up and not see an aircraft streaking out a plum, where I automatically go into analysis mode estimating altitude, width of the trail, watching to see if the trail dissipates or becomes permanent or if it will spread, if so. which direction it drifts. Curious, I might check the flight software to see its altitude, type of aircraft, speed and destination, perhaps seeing another aircraft tracking in the same direction with only a needle-like short-lived trail and then I feel the need to quickly verify that the altitudes are different as the vertical depth of the ice saturated air in which a permanent aviaticus has formed is quite thin, perhaps a 1000'. Yep, it was nice just a few miles north of the flyway, looking up and seeing none of this and not being able to see what was going on in the south along the flyway because the trees block that view. I just go back to my tasks, not distracted by what has now become an unfamiliar spring Sky, the sky of my distant childhood. The only thought that may slip into my mind while I am north, are the clouds I am seeing natural, aviaticus or a hybrid of the two?  But without the obvious linear shape, it is not possible to know so that thought dissipates faster than a short trail in dry/warm air and I go about enjoying the view.

The original problem posed by contrails were for military reasons.  Now the funded sciences are trying to find a solution because of the climate changing possibilities of aviaticus clouds, warming, cooling, hydrology cycle disruption or even if there is a problem, is it significant?  Aesthetics are hardly mentioned in the funded studies that I've read. Nevertheless if they successfully find a solution to this very complex residual effect of air transport, the aesthetics will follow, the naturally beautiful sky literally will follow.  

Researchers are pursuing the solutions for contrail elimination, but each contrail solution like pharmaceuticals have challenging side effects.  Will more efficient engines to reduce the soot nuclei produce greater heat or possibly more water vapor or CO2?  Flying around ice saturated air could cost more fuel, lengthen flight time, place more stress on crews, passengers and air controllers. Changing traditional flight altitude to the tropopause or lower stratosphere where the air is dryer and contrails are unlikely to form. But then the concern is for ozone depletion from the chemical emissions. Ideally short of reducing air travel, since the ice saturation sheets are thin, if they can be detected these sheets with precision, altitude adjustments of just a few thousand feet during each flight to avoid those areas could reduce aviaticus clouds to a great extent. Having at the same time more efficient engines and fuels that produce less soot nuclei would still be important. First clouds can still be formed by the sub-visual aerotrails of soot particles well after the aircraft has passed as the particles contact more humid air. Still little is known of the effects of millions of aerotrails even if no contrails are formed. Perhaps there are no negative effects,  perhaps the accumulation of these particles are having an effect on climate or health we do not yet understand or that the public is aware of.


For more on this subject please read Ulrich Schumann's 2005 published paper:





Extended Aviaticus Cloud Forecast:  By Wednesday 4.22.2015 the cloud cover should begin to break and a dryer air mass should move in. Earlier Thursday the clouds should be clearing out and during this period contrails should form but decrease to short-lived whiffs by late afternoon Thursday or Friday morning.

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/go-seven-miles-north-then-turn-straight.html

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