Forecasting A Day Long Aviaticus Cloud Event over the Central Wisconsin Flyway

4/28/2015 0700 CT: It appears by the indicators we should have good aviaticus cloud production by this afternoon. An air mass is moving in from the west-northwest and it appears a distinct boundary line (sheet) will precede this.

Update:  The indicators were correct.  NASA's Rapid Update Cycle  map based on the old Appleman Chart however did not show the likelihood of contrail formations.  I can say this is evidence that human analysis will be necessary for forecasting aviaticus events as the RUC model does not take into consideration present/past meteorological and flight tracking patterns.

The Boundary Sheet precedes this cloud mass, the 'dash' within the circle is our flight corridor, infrared map site:

Moisture Map at 7:15AM shows a trace of the Boundary Sheet pushing out the dry air (dark band). At 7:30AM when the first west bound aircraft passed over the green dash, they left segmented persistent aviaticus clouds (water vapor site):

First trails from west-bounds at 7:30AM (Looking East):

Here is the RUC map at that time indicating no upper air conditions for contrail formations in our flyway (White Dash):

In early afternoon RUC indicated favorable conditions: 

At that time both infrared and moisture maps indicated the boundary sheet was right over the flyway as indicated in these screen shots: Maps from NOAA Site

At that time I needed to drive north of our Flyway 7 miles and this is what the cloud cover looked like at the time the above maps were displayed:

Looking North away from the Flyway, note generally natural cirrus:

Looking south into the Flyway with both natural and aviaticus clouds:

As of 5:00PM CT persistent spreading aviaticus clouds are still being formed. Here is a remnant segment from a nice spreading trail:

Typically these trails from the northwest transports are Asian flights to Chicago.  Using the flightradar24 playback, my best guess from when the trail was laid and figuring drift of the formation, this was the aircraft that laid the above aviaticus trail:

At 6:00PM CT a parade of aircraft in quick succession passed through the Flyway leaving some nice trails within the thin aviaticus cirrostratus cloud layer that had developed or had mixed with the natural clouds:

During the night the cloud mass(es) passed through being coat-tailed by mid-altitude clouds and not even a whiff or pencil of short term aviaticus. 

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/forecasting-day-long-aviaticus-cloud.html