Forecasting A Day Long Aviaticus Cloud Event over the Central Wisconsin Flyway

4/28/2015 0700 CT: It appears by the indicators we should have good aviaticus cloud production by this afternoon. An air mass is moving in from the west-northwest and it appears a distinct boundary line (sheet) will precede this.

Update:  The indicators were correct.  NASA's Rapid Update Cycle  map based on the old Appleman Chart however did not show the likelihood of contrail formations.  I can say this is evidence that human analysis will be necessary for forecasting aviaticus events as the RUC model does not take into consideration present/past meteorological and flight tracking patterns.

The Boundary Sheet precedes this cloud mass, the 'dash' within the circle is our flight corridor, infrared map site:

Moisture Map at 7:15AM shows a trace of the Boundary Sheet pushing out the dry air (dark band). At 7:30AM when the first west bound aircraft passed over the green dash, they left segmented persistent aviaticus clouds (water vapor site):

First trails from west-bounds at 7:30AM (Looking East):

Here is the RUC map at that time indicating no upper air conditions for contrail formations in our flyway (White Dash):

In early afternoon RUC indicated favorable conditions: 

At that time both infrared and moisture maps indicated the boundary sheet was right over the flyway as indicated in these screen shots: Maps from NOAA Site

At that time I needed to drive north of our Flyway 7 miles and this is what the cloud cover looked like at the time the above maps were displayed:

Looking North away from the Flyway, note generally natural cirrus:

Looking south into the Flyway with both natural and aviaticus clouds:

As of 5:00PM CT persistent spreading aviaticus clouds are still being formed. Here is a remnant segment from a nice spreading trail:

Typically these trails from the northwest transports are Asian flights to Chicago.  Using the flightradar24 playback, my best guess from when the trail was laid and figuring drift of the formation, this was the aircraft that laid the above aviaticus trail:

At 6:00PM CT a parade of aircraft in quick succession passed through the Flyway leaving some nice trails within the thin aviaticus cirrostratus cloud layer that had developed or had mixed with the natural clouds:

During the night the cloud mass(es) passed through being coat-tailed by mid-altitude clouds and not even a whiff or pencil of short term aviaticus. 

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/forecasting-day-long-aviaticus-cloud.html

All Clear on the Central Flyway Today, here is why not a single contrail is to be seen:

Fabulous cool clear blue day with dry upper air and not a spit of an aviaticus trail or hint of a drifting cirrus to be seen.  Where are the aircraft? They can be heard flying over but only with a sharp eye or binoculars can they be spotted today.  They are all laying out sub-visual aerotrails of water vapor, cloud condensing nuclei such as soot.  The cloud mass exited over night and during that time the boundary line passed over the Central Wisconsin Flyway, even if conditions were right for contrail formation not that many flights were scheduled then.

Here are some photos that demonstrate why the aviaticus clouds (contrails) are not forming today:

A wide swath of dry air is covering most of the state of Wisconsin so exhaust vapor is not condensing on the cloud condensing nuclei spewed by the aircraft. Maps of Water Vapor &  Infrared from NOAA Site.

Below is a map of cloud cover with a line drawn to show the approximate corridor of jet traffic

We have a forecast for light rain Friday night 4.24.2015 so the best chance of an aviaticus event would be Friday when a moister boundary line passes through the Flyway from the Northwest prior to overcast.

Update:  Only light non-persistent aviaticus continued through Friday until the overcast covered the view. But as the overcast broke a bit Saturday morning remnants of persistent trails could be seen but no new trails could be seen in the broken cloud cover the rest of the day. 4.25.2015

4/26/2015  0600 CT:  This morning a huge mass of clear day air swung in from the north but it appears a blurred boundary line is following with a bit more moisture so by the time air traffic begins in another hour the transports should sport only short whiffs, if any at all.  The rapid update cycle map does show possible contrail forming conditions in the eastern segment of this flyway but I won't know until the Sunday morning traffic begins if those conditions remain or pushed south and aviaticus actually form.

Note small blue circle within the large white circle near Green Bay on the east side of our east/west Flyway on the Rapid Update Cycle Map:

4/27/2015 1800 CT: The same weather pattern continues. Short to no contrails, none persistent from morning until noon.  Interesting water vapor pattern.  Again the dry area dominated the flyway as moister air pushed in from the east and surface winds were from the north, the dry air (browns and blacks) became faintly stratified with bands of moister air (white) as seen on this map (water vapor site): 

At this time loose bands of natural cirrus clouds were moving through.  By noon a few segments of persistent aviaticus clouds could be seen as aircraft would traverse these areas.  By later afternoon the stratification was gone. Then that air mass had pushed over the flyway as seen in the map with more moister air (white area) replacing it. Infrared Map Site

Some trails became longer but none would persist and a few depending on altitude left short segments as they passed through the cooler moister air:

This photo is looking east from the east/west Flyway. Note a persistent segment of aviaticus clouds.  The natural cirrus may be at or near the same altitude as the aviaticus segment.  These cirrus clouds did not show up on the infrared map but I'm associating these natural and aviaticus cirrus with the bands or lighter areas of moister air.

4/28/2015 0700 CT: It appears by the indicators we should have good aviaticus cloud production by this afternoon. An air mass is moving in from the west-northwest and it appears a distinct boundary line (sheet) will precede this.

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/all-clear-on-central-flyway-today-here.html

It is Time for Professional Meteorologists to Step Up & Begin Forecasting the Big White Elephant in the Sky

Over the last last 4 months I have attempted to forecast contrail events for Central Wisconsin. Untrained in meteorology and particularly in upper atmospheric science, I have had to rely on ground based observations of weather and air traffic patterns and national weather maps and local weather forecasts.  Here are a few things I have learned or observed:

1. All combustion aircraft leave a persistent trail, invisible from the ground, called an aerosol trail, aerotrail for short.
2. The aerotrails are composed of cloud condensation nuclei. (CCN) These are basically small particles of soot that may form into water droplets or ice crystals depending on the temperature of the air.
3. All combustion aircraft add water vapor to the atmosphere.
4. The lengthening or shortening of contrails (cirrus aviaticus) indicates areas of temperature or moisture changes in the upper atmosphere or both.
5. When contrails of short duration begin to lengthen, going to needle size, to pencil, to fishing pole, expect persistent contrails to begin forming. 
6. As drier or warmer upper air masses move into flyway areas expect to see the contrails become shorter in length and duration or not appear altogether.
7. When natural cirrus clouds move through a flyway, contrails will more likely be visible.
8. Multiple persistent trails may spread to form milky sheet clouds. I call these clouds cirrostratus aviaticus.
9. Persistent contrails most likely form on either side of moisture boundary lines, sometimes called dry lines. These boundary lines can be wide and I call them boundary sheets.
10. As the boundary sheets drift within the flyway additional aircraft pass though them laying more invisible aerotrails and moisture making the cirrostratus aviaticus denser in appearance.
11. If the drift is in the direction of the predominant flyway traffic the ice crystal saturation can lead to the viewing of or at least enhance sun dog halos.
12. If  the persistent cirrus aviaticus (contrails) or cirrostratus aviaticus (milky sheets) drift outside the flyway, they tend to thin or dissipate.  With the lack of traffic no more man-made nuclei is added.
13. So far, from identifying the aircraft using flight tracking software,  I have not been able to identity any deliberate laying of chemtrails (chemical trails)
14. All the phenomenon I have observed so far has been from regular commercial airline traffic flying between 30,000-40,000'.

Today we have heavy persistent cirrus aviaticus clouds forming and morphing into cirrostratus aviaticus within the Central Wisconsin Flyway.

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/it-is-time-for-professional.html

Contrail (Aviaticus Clouds) Forecast for Central Wisconsin: Great Day for Photography if You Want to Avoid Man-made Clouds

A wide swath of dry upper air slightly streak with areas of moisture but without any distinct boundary lines will be over the Wisconsin Flyway today.  We should have some hit and miss aviaticus trails tomorrow and Thursday as conditions become a bit more mixed and complex. I'll try to post an update if boundary sheets with moist air become evident.

Update: Wrong! Before noon the dry upper air pushed north and cirrus and sections of cirrostratus moved in from the a southwest front.  Only short trails were seen earlier but as the dry air was replaced small segments of persistent aviaticus clouds (contrails) were scattered about though for the most part trails remained short with quick dissipation. This continued to increase into the afternoon dividing the state into two hemispheres, the dividing line going right over my location. So looking north I would see clear skies, south thicken cirrus of both natural and aviaticus. 

A Boundary line is shown below but again the boundary sheet of moister air reaches further north of the line as this mass inches north so contrails (aviaticus clouds) and longer non-persistent trails formed.  Oddly, the meteorologist were all correct, we had sun all day as the clouds were too thin to block it. How much of the cloudiness was cirrostratus aviaticus is the question.  Natural cirrus were present in the early morning but the continual additions of nuclei to the moving boundary sheets may be the greatest factor. This is why meteorologist need to make contrail forecasts.  Sunny skies do not mean clear blue skies especially along the flight corridors.                                  

                                               Infrared Map: From NOAA Site

Moisture Map, Darker Area indicates Drier Air: From NOAA Site

From the Boundary Line Looking South into the Flyway

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/contrail-aviaticus-clouds-forecast-for.html

Adding Cloud Condensation Nuclei Analysis to my Future Aviaticus Cloud Forecasting...Someday???

Cloud Condensation Nuclei CCN

Professor Henrik Svensmark believes cosmic rays ionize the atmospheric gases and this forms an unknown percentage of the cloud condensation nuclei CCN that attract water vapor and form ice crystals and rain drops which form clouds. Simply, cosmic rays form some clouds. Under the right conditions can other unknown stimuli cause the formation of persistent and spreading aviaticus (Aviation) clouds?

In a slide show lecture he used this satellite image of exhaust clouds, not the common and familiar aircraft contrail images but this one is of ships off the coast of Europe.

Cloud Condensation Nuclei CCN Count Analysis

Presently CCN are captured by aircraft but of course the challenging move to satellite analysis is progressing.  Perhaps it it already being tested and used.  Right now companies such as Droplet Measurement Technologies DMT sell services and CCN gathering and analysis equipment to a variety of research laboratories but if and when CCN analysis by satellite is perfected, atmospheric, pollution and climate change researcher, weather modification applicators, aircraft manufactures will subscribe to satellite analysis services. 

A CCN Counter Sold by Droplet Measurement Technologies:

No aviaticus (aviation) cloud forecast for the next few days due to weather forecast of cloud cover. Next possible event should be Saturday 4/11/2015

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/announcement-adding-cloud-condensation.html