Tracking down a contrail with FlightRadar24

Here is a good flightradar24 video demonstration by Mick West of how to filter out aircraft that are too low to form aviaticus clouds. When forecasting aviaticus cloud events it is essential to know your local air traffic pattern to determine the time of day when these clouds could form, when the conditions are right, i.e. your area is covered by a boundary sheet.



Below is another interesting tutorial about estimating the distances of visible aerotrails up to 200 mikes away.

After learning the flight patterns in your area it becomes quite easy to estimate range without any devices or software.

Forecasting A Day Long Aviaticus Cloud Event over the Central Wisconsin Flyway

4/28/2015 0700 CT: It appears by the indicators we should have good aviaticus cloud production by this afternoon. An air mass is moving in from the west-northwest and it appears a distinct boundary line (sheet) will precede this.

Update:  The indicators were correct.  NASA's Rapid Update Cycle  map based on the old Appleman Chart however did not show the likelihood of contrail formations.  I can say this is evidence that human analysis will be necessary for forecasting aviaticus events as the RUC model does not take into consideration present/past meteorological and flight tracking patterns.

The Boundary Sheet precedes this cloud mass, the 'dash' within the circle is our flight corridor, infrared map site:

Moisture Map at 7:15AM shows a trace of the Boundary Sheet pushing out the dry air (dark band). At 7:30AM when the first west bound aircraft passed over the green dash, they left segmented persistent aviaticus clouds (water vapor site):

First trails from west-bounds at 7:30AM (Looking East):

Here is the RUC map at that time indicating no upper air conditions for contrail formations in our flyway (White Dash):

In early afternoon RUC indicated favorable conditions: 

At that time both infrared and moisture maps indicated the boundary sheet was right over the flyway as indicated in these screen shots: Maps from NOAA Site

At that time I needed to drive north of our Flyway 7 miles and this is what the cloud cover looked like at the time the above maps were displayed:

Looking North away from the Flyway, note generally natural cirrus:

Looking south into the Flyway with both natural and aviaticus clouds:

As of 5:00PM CT persistent spreading aviaticus clouds are still being formed. Here is a remnant segment from a nice spreading trail:

Typically these trails from the northwest transports are Asian flights to Chicago.  Using the flightradar24 playback, my best guess from when the trail was laid and figuring drift of the formation, this was the aircraft that laid the above aviaticus trail:

At 6:00PM CT a parade of aircraft in quick succession passed through the Flyway leaving some nice trails within the thin aviaticus cirrostratus cloud layer that had developed or had mixed with the natural clouds:

During the night the cloud mass(es) passed through being coat-tailed by mid-altitude clouds and not even a whiff or pencil of short term aviaticus. 

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/forecasting-day-long-aviaticus-cloud.html

How Contrail Form into Milky Opaque Sheets

Yesterday was a full day of persistent to spreading cirrus aviaticus clouds (contrails).  As the first line of east to west air traffic traversed through our Central Wisconsin Flyway, horizon to horizon trails began to form from the water vapor attaching to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) from the jet exhaust at an altitude between 32000-36000'. From flightradar24

Moist air continued to push in from the southwest following the pattern of the last 4 days, forming a boundary line (sheet) roughly along and beneath the regular air traffic pattern. From Infrared Map Site

Infrared

Moisture  From NOAA Water Vapor Site

At that time 7:30-8:00 AM CT the high cirrus were moving through the Flyway as the air mass slowly spread to the north.  

From the northern edge of the east west weather and air traffic pattern looking south:

Looking North of the Flyway:

By 9:30 AM the boundary line with both natural and aviaticus cirrus clouds drifted north and this continued throughout the day.

Looking East as Thin Clouds Drift Past the Flyway Going North.  A typical view seen most of the entire day.

As the cloud cover progressively thickened (optical density OD) from a combination of natural clouds and the boundary sheet area of the flyway which by then had been striped with many additional persistent clouds,  a sort of nuclei and moisture saturation occurred and typical for this type of event a sun dog formed from the natural and cirrostratus aviaticus ice clouds.

Looking South into the Flyway 11:00 AM

Note: Even NASA's Rapid Update Cycle RUC Map below, based on the Appleman Chart got this one right.

The 3 yellow circles across the center of the Wisconsin Flyway were a predictor of contrail formations:

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/massive-day-long-contrail-event-of.html

It is Time for Professional Meteorologists to Step Up & Begin Forecasting the Big White Elephant in the Sky

Over the last last 4 months I have attempted to forecast contrail events for Central Wisconsin. Untrained in meteorology and particularly in upper atmospheric science, I have had to rely on ground based observations of weather and air traffic patterns and national weather maps and local weather forecasts.  Here are a few things I have learned or observed:

1. All combustion aircraft leave a persistent trail, invisible from the ground, called an aerosol trail, aerotrail for short.
2. The aerotrails are composed of cloud condensation nuclei. (CCN) These are basically small particles of soot that may form into water droplets or ice crystals depending on the temperature of the air.
3. All combustion aircraft add water vapor to the atmosphere.
4. The lengthening or shortening of contrails (cirrus aviaticus) indicates areas of temperature or moisture changes in the upper atmosphere or both.
5. When contrails of short duration begin to lengthen, going to needle size, to pencil, to fishing pole, expect persistent contrails to begin forming. 
6. As drier or warmer upper air masses move into flyway areas expect to see the contrails become shorter in length and duration or not appear altogether.
7. When natural cirrus clouds move through a flyway, contrails will more likely be visible.
8. Multiple persistent trails may spread to form milky sheet clouds. I call these clouds cirrostratus aviaticus.
9. Persistent contrails most likely form on either side of moisture boundary lines, sometimes called dry lines. These boundary lines can be wide and I call them boundary sheets.
10. As the boundary sheets drift within the flyway additional aircraft pass though them laying more invisible aerotrails and moisture making the cirrostratus aviaticus denser in appearance.
11. If the drift is in the direction of the predominant flyway traffic the ice crystal saturation can lead to the viewing of or at least enhance sun dog halos.
12. If  the persistent cirrus aviaticus (contrails) or cirrostratus aviaticus (milky sheets) drift outside the flyway, they tend to thin or dissipate.  With the lack of traffic no more man-made nuclei is added.
13. So far, from identifying the aircraft using flight tracking software,  I have not been able to identity any deliberate laying of chemtrails (chemical trails)
14. All the phenomenon I have observed so far has been from regular commercial airline traffic flying between 30,000-40,000'.

Today we have heavy persistent cirrus aviaticus clouds forming and morphing into cirrostratus aviaticus within the Central Wisconsin Flyway.

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/it-is-time-for-professional.html

A Time Frame Today For Contrail Formations in Central Wisconsin

For the third day in a row the weather pattern has been from the southeast and rain clouds will push out this morning with mats of drier clouds tailing. Tailing these will be a break up of clouds and there should be some aviaticus formations just before a huge upper mass of dry air covers most of central Wisconsin with only a small change of some drift segments from the southeast.  Otherwise it should be binoculars only for tracking the high flyers.

Update:  The tailing clouds were less than what appeared on the forecast map and the dry line seemed thin.  We had several hours of short whiff contrails in the intermediary air around that dry boundary line but after 10 AM these aviaticus trails were no longer appearing. Map from NOAA Site

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/a-time-frame-today-for-contrail.html

Light Contrail Formation Expected Today for Central Wisconsin Flyway, Nesting Box Prep Ends Today

We are right on the cusp of some partial cloud clearing this afternoon with some breakup already apparent.  Patches of dry upper air also is swirling through the state. Conditions do not look good for aviaticus (aircraft) cloud formation today but Saturday we are expecting full blown spring to bully into the area.

Update: Clouds cover passed to mostly clear skies in the late afternoon.  Two aviaticus cloud segments could be seen in the far northwest and after an hour they had drifted overhead and appeared like natural cirrus. Not a whiff or a needle of contrail besides these formed all day.

Nature is poised and ready to explode.  Managed to clean out the bird nesting boxes yesterday and add inspection lids in preparation for nest monitoring.  It appears time is up for those activities as the ongoing jostling for territories by the early cold tolerant migrants is about to shift to breeding and nest building  . Ice went off the lakes this week.

A Tree Swallow Nest from  Last Year

Nest Boxes Made from and mounted on  Old Cedar Post.  This year I have installed inspection covers to monitor the clutches.

Adding Cloud Condensation Nuclei Analysis to my Future Aviaticus Cloud Forecasting...Someday???

Cloud Condensation Nuclei CCN

Professor Henrik Svensmark believes cosmic rays ionize the atmospheric gases and this forms an unknown percentage of the cloud condensation nuclei CCN that attract water vapor and form ice crystals and rain drops which form clouds. Simply, cosmic rays form some clouds. Under the right conditions can other unknown stimuli cause the formation of persistent and spreading aviaticus (Aviation) clouds?

In a slide show lecture he used this satellite image of exhaust clouds, not the common and familiar aircraft contrail images but this one is of ships off the coast of Europe.

Cloud Condensation Nuclei CCN Count Analysis

Presently CCN are captured by aircraft but of course the challenging move to satellite analysis is progressing.  Perhaps it it already being tested and used.  Right now companies such as Droplet Measurement Technologies DMT sell services and CCN gathering and analysis equipment to a variety of research laboratories but if and when CCN analysis by satellite is perfected, atmospheric, pollution and climate change researcher, weather modification applicators, aircraft manufactures will subscribe to satellite analysis services. 

A CCN Counter Sold by Droplet Measurement Technologies:

No aviaticus (aviation) cloud forecast for the next few days due to weather forecast of cloud cover. Next possible event should be Saturday 4/11/2015

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/announcement-adding-cloud-condensation.html

Aircraft Clouds (cirrus aviaticus) Forecast for Central Wisconsin Flyway & German High Altitude Video

We have low cloud cover this morning in central Wisconsin along our flyway but indicators show that conditions do not appear favorable for visible aircraft trails (aviaticus clouds) in the upper atmosphere anyway.

Later this morning we should have partial clearing with possible aviaticus forming in the the thinner upper tailing clouds.  Also the local weather forecast calls for a chance of snow or rain.  So there may be some appearances of persistent aviaticus clouds preceding these denser clouds but overall we should not be seeing huge contrail events today.

In the video below from Germany, the guys used a GoPro and from an high altitude balloon filmed above the lower cloud deck. The film is for the most part sped up but once they get above the stratus formation they slow the speed down. Look carefully at 3:27 to 3:52 and it appears they captured a typical persistent cirrus aviaticus just to the left and below the sun!

Update: As clouds slightly broke in late AM, no trails could be seen during a period of busy travel. Progressively moderate breaking of cloud cover in mid-afternoon showed a thin cirrostratus had developed and one persistent and spreading aviaticus cloud. As lower clouds thinned, a long thin trails were blazed with durations of 2-3 minutes before dissipating. 

One interesting traffic anomaly. A line of west bound jets at 32,000-37,000 trailed by me and then tracked north a bit, then back south and back on their westerly track to Minneapolis as if avoiding something.  I couldn't see any weather on satellite that would explain why they were re-routed, just more cloudiness closing off the remaining blue. Turbulence? 

 From Flightradar24

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/aircraft-clouds-cirrus-aviaticus.html

Aerotrails: Why Some Contrails Last Longer than Others?

Anyone who studies and writes about aircraft clouds realizes there is a need for a new vocabulary for contrail studies and descriptions.  Roland Nunez from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in an interesting paper that was published in 2014, writes about this.  He also used the term 'areotrails', a contraction of aerosol trails, basically the unseen soot pollutants in aircraft exhaust. These invisible trails may explain why some persistent trail clouds are larger, spread wider or last longer than other persistent aviaticus trails. All jets leave aerotrails and there were over 37,000,000 flights scheduled last year, 37 million invisible areotrails! This does not include private, scientific and military flights.

When aviaticus (aircraft) clouds are formed, are the nuclei of which the water vapor attach to and form ice crystals natural atmospheric nuclei such as volcanic particles?  Or are they from the soot particles?  A combination of both?  I would guess the combination of both. In a cold high humidity area of the upper atmosphere that is also saturated with natural nuclei, wouldn't the extra nuclei introduced from the jet exhaust cause the formation of more ice crystals and thus a more robust cloud?  Then as the trail clouds drift and mix into even higher humidity and colder areas or areas with higher natural nuclei, couldn't the clouds continue to expand?  Is it possible some of the cirrus clouds we see and assume are natural, are formed when invisible aerotrails drift into and mix with atmosphere that is more conducive for cirrus formation but lacking natural nuclei?  Could the mix of natural and aircraft exhaust nuclei explain the milky clouds (cirrostratus aviaticus) during heavy contrail events?

No contrail forecast for central Wisconsin today.  Even though it did not look like the conditions were right for aviaticus formations, the weather forecast was for cloud cover anyway. We did start out with a nice AM 'blue out', with not one whiff or needle of trail.  But just before the cloud front moved in a few segments of persistent aviaticus trails were seen.

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/aerotrails-clue-to-why-some-contrails.html

Contrail Forecast: Blue 'n Dry at the Surface and Upper Atmosphere for Central Wisconsin Today

No Short or Persistent Aviaticus Trails for today.  A great day for outdoor photography if you want to avoid man-made clouds in the background.

Update 4/5/2015:  No short whiffs or persistent clouds (cirrus aviaticus) formed yesterday, no milky sheets (cirrostratus aviaticus) or remnant segments (cirrus aviaticus) drifted into the area. 

Today's Aviaticus (Aircraft Clouds) Forecast For our Central Wisconsin Flyway

Gray matter, talking clouds here,  not to be confused with the theoretical and ever elusive 'Dark Matter'  of the universe, will be moving out of Central Wisconsin starting in early afternoon.  We should have some thinning residual clouds coat tailing those exiting thick gray clouds  and that may be the best time for contrail formations and viewing.  Later we have a section of low vapor air crossing our area and another possible total blue out where not even whiffs and needles of trails will be visible.  Cirrostratus aviaticus clouds (milky thin cirrus layers) are not likely.  


We will have good east to west high altitude air traffic at that time during the afternoon so it will be interesting to watch the trail development or lack of development during the transitions.

End of Day Update: 

About noon the the gray clouds shifted out of the area and were tailed by high thin, but not transparent clouds that revealed the remnant of jets from the east west corridor as forecasted. The sun dog indicates the ice crystals and a fine medium for aviaticus formation:

Further west and approaching was the clear less humid atmosphere.  Here the first break in this long cloud event a west bound aircraft laying a visible trail. This cirrus aviaticus dissolves as it passes through the blue zone, then appears again as it crosses over a thicker remnant of the cloud front:

The rest of the day was a tangled mix of areas of cirrus and clear sky allowing the formation short trails and a few persistent trail. Here a segments drifts by. No cirrostratus aviaticus formed all afternoon:

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/todays-aviaticus-aircraft-clouds.html

Aviaticus Pencils in the Sky Grow to Cane Poles

This morning in the west to east fly lane short aviaticus trails were being painted in the partly clouding skies. As more clouds moved in the contrails grew from pencil size (if you were to hold a pencil over your head) to half the viewing hemisphere. All dissipating quickly and then overcast ruled and goodbye sunshine with the increasing cloud cover that moved in.  Two short persistent segments could be seen in the south prior to cloud cover.  Perhaps some broken clearing this afternoon and upper atmosphere weather may bring about another viewing event before sunset.

UPDATE:  The cloud cover passed in early afternoon and the traffic began stroking out the elongated trails.  But mid after noon with heavy traffic along the east west flyway the cirrus aviaticus became quite numerous.  As they began to slowly spread, cirrostratus aviaticus formed within the natural and very thin cirrostratus.  Nice show.

This Canadair CRJ left a persistent aviaticus that was still in view and fairly tight even after I confirmed the landing in Minneapolis. Map from Flightradar24

An east bound Boeing at 34000 and a west bound Canadair CRJ-200 at 31000 appeared to be heading for a collision on the iPad, still impressive in the photo:

http://theorioninitiative2.blogspot.com/2015/04/aviaticus-pencils-in-sky-grow-to-cane.html

Total Blue Out in Central Wisconsin Again

Not a spit, whiff or needle of aviaticus clouds this morning and just an occasional orphan-like clod of natural cloud straggling from the north ahead of the front. We have a nice wide swath of low moisture atmosphere overhead right now. Not looking good for a decent contrail event as the front may move through after sunset. Very little cirrus preceding this front either.

So eyes in the sky on Eagles, returning Sandhill Cranes and Canada Geese and the occasional glint of trailess jet.  

As summer approaches and the atmosphere warms there will be fewer opportunities to view outstanding aviaticus events like yesterday. 

Update:  Wrong! The northern front hooked in from the west and bought a nice looking cloud mix of cumulus with a sheeting cirrus covering. But no aviaticus to be seen:

Then a few short lived trails were spotted darting between the cloud openings:

This is the first Aviaticus cloud, created by a westbound, that persisted. It drifted south for quite awhile but still held a tight form:

Then a surprise first, in the east, a south bound flight from Constantinople Turkey ripped by at 600 mph: (From Flightradar24)

After passing it began to descend and left a segment of persistent cloud (barely seen in lower right below) as it was dropping to between 28-30000':

With all the upper wind and apparent fast movement, no cirrostratus aviaticus formed within my view.

Central Wisconsin Aviaticus Cloud (Contrail) Forecast 3.30.2015

Presently we are clear, blue and brilliant with  barely a whiff or a needle trail to be seen.  Many of the passing traffic this morning are labeled with "No Call Sign" on the ADS-B tracking system.  Later this afternoon areas of the upper atmosphere where natural cirrus may form, the jet traffic should be spitting out short non-persistent trails, these may increase and lengthen as the precipitation low moves in from the west but I don't think there is a great chance to view persistent trails prior to the incoming cloud cover. Map from NOAA site

UPDATE: Pre-front thin clouds moved in early and quickly only several hours after I posted the forecast and with it a half dozen or so persistent trails right at a time when I was too busy driving to track and analyze.

ABOVE FACING SOUTH One trail maker in this shot tracking east to west along the fly way appeared to make a 90 degree turn to the north out of this formation.  As it left the clouds it continued to leave a good trail:

ABOVE FACING WEST I couldn't locate this guy on the Flight Tracker site,  Shortly after this shot was taken the portion of this persistent trail in the photo outside the hazy cloud front began to segment and dissipate in drier or warmer air.  Enlarged this can be seen at the far right of the trail behind the tree branches.

As the cloud front thickened with a bit of uniformity, I shot this partial sun-dog with aviaticus trails:

No short trails at all as I forecasted, the sky went from no trails to persistent trails with the front moving in. 

Learning to Forecast Persistent Contrail Events: Small Town Corp Execs did not like taking the Train

For 16 years I have been back to my home area of Clintonville, Wisconsin, USA. I couldn't wait to leave when I was 17. Blogging about contrail clouds or more specifically aviaticus formations forecasting, I think it is an odd hobby for me.  I'm not a meteorologist or a pilot or a writer but somehow I'm drawn to all three.

In 1942, My great grandfather at age 77, with all his sons at war, worked his farm alone. He got his hand caught in a hay baler and shortly died of lockjaw. The City of Clintonville, (population today still under 5000), where Four Wheel Drive (FWD) Corp was located, was actively pursing a site for a municipal airport. My great grand mother then sold the farm land to the City. The airport was built and Wisconsin Central Airlines was formed by the  execs from FWD. The execs had began their own commuting flight to Green Bay with one Waco Bi-Plane they had acquired by trading one of their company trucks.  They soon found out they could charge other people and thus the airline company was created.  In 1952 they changed its name to North Central Airlines and became a large regional carrier. In 1979 North Central Airlines went national.  They bought Southern Airways and changed their name to Republic Airlines and a year later acquired Hughes Airwest.  Six years later Northwest Airlines bought out Republic and then Northwest merged  with Delta and in 2010 the surviving name was Delta Airlines.   I am now located 14 miles north of the Clintonville and I happened to take notice of the large number of planes that fly over or near Clintonville.  I still do not know if this is a coincidence because of Clintonville's geographical location between Minneapolis, Chicago and Detroit or if it is just a common traditional flyway that has nor changed in 70 years even though there has not been commercial service to Clintonville in many decades.  Now if I turn to face north with my back to Clintonville, there is little traffic to see so I am located in a rural area, on the cusp of a flyway with a great visual view of the sky traffic and Aviaticus clouds the traffic creates.

As I am writing this Flight ACA6 Boeing 777 from Tokyo to Toronto passes over Clintonville, WI

North of Clintonville, Wisconsin there is not much air traffic to view as shown from the example screen shot below

Not only is the air traffic easily viewed and tracked from my location because I for the most part need only look south.  In addition. the prevailing weather almost always runs west to east.  This is why this is such a good area to observe aircraft and weather patterns in order to learn to forecast persistent contrail events. (PCE)